Recipe simulator · Built on Cornell & USDA yield data

Your bestseller might be your
biggest profit leak

1 in 3 menu items lose money — and most owners can not tell which. Build your recipe with real yields, trim loss & overhead in 60 seconds. See which dishes are Stars, which are silently bleeding you, and the exact price that fixes it (Star · Puzzle · Plowhorse · Dog matrix).

⏱️ Answer in 60 seconds 🍳 6 preset recipes to try 📚 8 published sources ⚡ No signup
Ingredient
Qty
Yield
Cost
Cited methodology

How we calculate — and why every number is sourced

Worldwide reference cases

When recipes are costed properly, everything changes

Cornell · 1982 → 2020

Kasavana & Smith Menu Engineering

The original Cornell study showed re-engineering Stars & Plowhorses lifts profit 7–15% without raising prices. The 2020 replication on 1,200 restaurants confirmed the effect.

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Toast · 2024

2024 Restaurant Trends Report

Across 105,000 restaurants: those who recost recipes weekly out-margin those who recost yearly by 4.2 percentage points. The compounding effect is massive.

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CIA · 2023 ed.

The Book of Yields

The global gold standard: 1,000+ ingredients with verified yield ratios. Ignoring yields under-states plate cost by 15–30% — the difference between profit and loss.

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McKinsey · 2023

Hospitality inflation pass-through

2021–2023: input costs rose 18%, menu prices 9%. Restaurants that re-priced quarterly held their margin; those who waited lost 40% of it.

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NRA · 2024

State of the Industry 2024

Average profit margin only 3–5%. Each 1% drop in food cost = 20–30% lift in net profit. The numbers don't lie — they're just hard to track without a system.

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Pavesic · 1983

Cost-Margin Method

Pavesic's complement to Kasavana — weights margin by cost instead of percentage. Critical for fine dining where a 35% food cost can be more profitable than 25%.

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Questions chefs & owners ask

Everything about recipe costing

Why does plate cost differ from (qty × kg price)?

Because raw ingredient loses weight on trim and cooking. 1 kg raw chicken yields ~780 g edible. Cost of 100 g on the plate = 100/780 × kg price, not 100/1000. This gap silently steals 15–30% of your margin.

Why is there an automatic 8% overhead slack?

Oil, salt, spice, marinade, side bread, garnish — nobody itemizes them per plate. The industry standard is 6–12% (Dittmer & Keefe). We default to 8% — adjustable. Leaving it at zero hides a real cost.

How is the dish classified on the matrix?

Two axes: (1) popularity = covers/day vs. threshold (30/day GCC median), (2) profitability = food cost % vs. your target. High + high = ⭐ Star. Low + low = 🐕 Dog. Framework: Kasavana & Smith (Cornell 1982).

The default prices feel outdated — what do I do?

Every row is editable: kg price, yield %, quantity. The full Polaris pulls prices automatically from your suppliers' invoices daily — here you can sanity-check the logic with your own numbers.

What happens after I submit my email?

Within 60 seconds you get: (1) full PDF of this recipe, (2) your category benchmarks (QSR/casual/fine), (3) top-10 specific quick wins for your restaurant. No cold calls without consent — we respect your time.

Imagine every dish on your menu costed like this — automatically, daily.

Polaris links supplier invoices, recipes, and sales into one dashboard. Plate cost updates the moment an ingredient price moves — before it eats your margin.

✓ No credit card · ✓ ZATCA Phase 2 ready · ✓ 90-day profit promise